Table 3 Projected change in premature temperature-attributable deaths by cluster and season for 2030, 2050 and 2100, relative to the 1990 baseline based on climate data from the MIROC5 model
Change in premature deaths in future reporting years relative to the 1990 baseline reporting period | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cold (October–March) | Heat (April–September) | Combined | ||||||||
Cluster | Population (2010) | 2030 | 2050 | 2100 | 2030 | 2050 | 2100 | 2030 | 2050 | 2100 |
1 | 43,376,142 | −1479 | −2168 | −5279 | 1677 | 2170 | 5120 | 197 | 2 | −160 |
2 | 31,613,703 | −916 | −1191 | −2581 | 1535 | 1995 | 4240 | 620 | 803 | 1659 |
3 | 14,372,496 | −478 | −626 | −1357 | 709 | 838 | 1720 | 231 | 212 | 363 |
4 | 21,143,442 | −490 | −746 | −1645 | 644 | 903 | 1850 | 153 | 157 | 204 |
5 | 36,479,539 | −738 | −997 | −1794 | 1313 | 1947 | 3422 | 576 | 950 | 1628 |
6 | 11,604,148 | −281 | −446 | −973 | 341 | 505 | 1069 | 60 | 59 | 97 |
7 | 15,148,594 | −298 | −625 | −1530 | 300 | 458 | 964 | 2 | −167 | −566 |
8 | 10,736,551 | −428 | −539 | −1073 | 301 | 458 | 779 | −127 | −82 | −295 |
9 | 4,774,894 | −99 | −130 | −236 | 129 | 190 | 345 | 31 | 60 | 109 |
All | 189,249,510 | −5207 | −7469 | −16,468 | 6950 | 9462 | 19,509 | 1743 | 1994 | 3042 |
Change in premature deaths per million study city residents in future reporting years relative to the 1990 baseline reporting period (2010 populations in all reporting periods) | ||||||||||
Cold (October–March) | Heat (April–September) | Combined | ||||||||
Cluster | Population (2010) | 2030 | 2050 | 2100 | 2030 | 2050 | 2100 | 2030 | 2050 | 2100 |
1 | 43,376,142 | −34.1 | −50.0 | −121.7 | 38.7 | 50.0 | 118.0 | 4.6 | 0.0 | −3.7 |
2 | 31,613,703 | −29.0 | −37.7 | −81.6 | 48.6 | 63.1 | 134.1 | 19.6 | 25.4 | 52.5 |
3 | 14,372,496 | −33.3 | −43.6 | −94.4 | 49.4 | 58.3 | 119.7 | 16.1 | 14.7 | 25.3 |
4 | 21,143,442 | −23.2 | −35.3 | −77.8 | 30.4 | 42.7 | 87.5 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 9.7 |
5 | 36,479,539 | −20.2 | −27.3 | −49.2 | 36.0 | 53.4 | 93.8 | 15.8 | 26.0 | 44.6 |
6 | 11,604,148 | −24.2 | −38.4 | −83.8 | 29.4 | 43.5 | 92.1 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 8.3 |
7 | 15,148,594 | −19.7 | −41.3 | −101.0 | 19.8 | 30.2 | 63.6 | 0.1 | −11.0 | −37.4 |
8 | 10,736,551 | −39.9 | −50.2 | −100.0 | 28.1 | 42.6 | 72.6 | −11.8 | −7.6 | −27.4 |
9 | 4,774,894 | −20.7 | −27.3 | −49.4 | 27.1 | 39.8 | 72.3 | 6.5 | 12.5 | 22.9 |
All | 189,249,510 | −27.5 | −39.5 | −87.0 | 36.7 | 50.0 | 103.1 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 16.1 |