S T R U C T U R A L E Q U A T I O N M O D E L (SEM)

B A Y E S I A N L I N E A R M I X E D M O D E L (BLMM)


Exposure/ Outcome

Moving average

% change in mean

95% PI

Posterior probability

Exposure/ Outcome

Moving average

% change in mean

95% PI

Posterior probability


Traffic/

4hr

0.1

(−19.0, 25.0)

0.50^{c}

BC/

4hr

−4.8

(−14.8, 6.3)

0.81^{e}

Para

24hr

3.2

(−19.4, 32.2)

0.40^{c}

HF^{d}

24hr

−6.9

(−16.9, 4.5)

0.89^{e}

sympathetic

48hr

−3.0

(−24.7, 25.4)

0.59^{c}
 
48hr

−3.7

(−13.9, 7.9)

0.74^{e}

tone^{b}

72hr

2.8

(−19.2, 29.1)

0.40^{c}
 
72hr

−2.9

(−13.5, 8.9)

0.70^{e}

Traffic/

4hr

6.6

(−6.7, 21.8)

0.83^{g}

BC/

4hr

10.1

(3.0, 17.6)

0.99^{i}

LF/HF^{f}

24hr

7.2

(−8.0, 25.1)

0.82^{g}

LF/HF^{h}

24hr

6.5

(−0.7, 14.2)

0.96^{i}


48hr

6.4

(−9.5, 24.3)

0.78^{g}
 
48hr

4.7

(−2.3, 12.2)

0.89^{i}


72hr

7.1

(−9.3, 26.0)

0.80^{g}
 
72hr

2.7

(−4.2, 10.1)

0.78^{i}


^{a}Interquartile range (IQR): 4hr = 0.88; 24hr = 0.52; 48hr = 0.43; 72hr = 0.36.

^{b}SEM: effect of traffic pollution on parasympathetic tone.

^{c}Posterior probability that γ
_{
1
} < 0.

^{d}BLMM: effect of black carbon on HF.

^{e}Posterior probability that β
_{
1
} < 0.

^{f}SEM: effect of traffic pollution on LF/HF.

^{g}Posterior probability that δ
_{
1
} > 0.

^{h}BLMM: effect of black carbon on LF/HF.

^{i}Posterior probability that ρ
_{
1
} > 0.