Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | Model 5 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Least squares model | ARMA (1,1) | Weighted least squares models | |||
ARMA(1,1), ARCH(2) | Weighted by birth counts | Weights of models 3 & 4 combined | |||
β (SE) | β (SE) | β (SE) | β (SE) | β (SE) | |
(Intercept) | 30.225*** | 20.833*** | 30.282*** | 30.918*** | 31.221*** |
(8.729) | (.731) | (8.220) | (8.069) | (7.838) | |
Time Series | .581*** | .724*** | .580*** | .575*** | .569*** |
(West Germany) | (.136) | (.014) | (.127) | (.122) | (.117) |
Year | -.004*** | -.003*** | -.004*** | -.005*** | -.005*** |
(.001) | (.000) | (.001) | (.001) | (.001) | |
Year = 1991 | -.300* | -.138 | -.299* | -.294 | -.293 |
(.120) | (.108) | (.134) | (.152) | (.174) | |
AR(1) | .549*** | .145 | |||
(.125) | (.385) | ||||
MA(1) | -1.000*** | -.486 | |||
(.044) | (.365) | ||||
AIC | -88.2 | -95.1 | -91.5 | -92.8 | -92.7 |
R2 | .683 | - | .698 | .710 | .716 |
Adj. R2 | .668 | - | .684 | .696 | .702 |
Num. obs. | 66 | 66 | 66 | 66 | 66 |