Table 5 Qualitative uncertainty characterization for demand-side management health benefits model, focusing on key model assumptions.
From: The public health benefits of insulation retrofits in existing housing in the United States
Model Component | Model Assumption | Likely Magnitude of Uncertainty | Effect of Alternative Assumptions |
|---|---|---|---|
Energy model | Insulation retrofits viable in 63% of homes, uniformly distributed nationally | small | - |
Use of regression model to estimate REM/Design outputs | small | - | |
Calibration of regression model outputs to RECS data | small | - | |
Emissions reductions | All marginal power plants equally likely to be affected by change in electricity consumption | medium | Capacity- or availability-based allocation (↑) |
Use of AP-42 emissions data for residential fuel combustion | medium | - | |
Constant emissions from power plants and residential fuel combustion over time | medium | Emissions decrease over time given regulations (↓) | |
Focus on air emissions of PM, NOx, SO2 | small | Include other criteria pollutants, air toxics (↑) | |
Intake fractions | Use of regression model estimates for intake fractions for power plants | unknown | - |
Use of regression model estimates for primary PM intake fractions for residential combustion | large | Apply dispersion model with more refined spatial resolution (↑) | |
Use of regression model estimates for secondary PM intake fractions for residential combustion | unknown | - | |
Health evidence | Use of American Cancer Society cohort evidence to estimate mortality risks from PM | large | Use results from Six Cities Study (↑); use only time-series evidence (↓) |
Equal toxicity of all particles | large | - | |
Linear concentration-response function with no threshold | unknown | Assume threshold at PM2.5 annual NAAQS (↓) | |
Inclusion of only asthma attacks, restricted activity days for morbidity | medium | Incorporate other morbidity outcomes (↑) | |
Valuation | Use of VSL of $6 million for mortality | large | - |
Constant real price of fuel over time | small | - | |
Model framework | Focus only on public health | medium | Include greenhouse gases, dependence on oil imports, etc. (↑) |
Focus only on emissions reductions from energy savings | medium | Include emissions from insulation manufacturing, occupational risks, indoor air quality, etc. (↓) |