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Table 1 Recent Studies of High Ambient Temperature and All-Cause Daily Mortality*

From: High ambient temperature and mortality: a review of epidemiologic studies from 2001 to 2008

Reference

Study population

Method

Exposure

Result: effect estimate (95% CI)

Baccini 2008 [12]

15 European cities, April-September 1990-2000 (5-11 years depending on data availability for city)

Time-series;

% change

Maximum apparent temperature (threshold 29.4°C Mediterranean cities and 23.3°C north-continental cities)

1°C increase above threshold 3.12 (0.60-5.72) in Mediterranean and 1.84 (0.06-3.64) in north-continental region

Lag: 3 days prior

Basu 2008 [6]

9 California counties, May to September 1999-2003

Time-series and case-crossover;

% change

Daily apparent temperature (minimum, mean, maximum); daily mean O3, PM2.5, PM10, NO2, CO, SO2

Per 10°F increase mean temperature, 2.3 (1.0-3.6), similar results for minimum and maximum temperatures

Lag: 0

Bell 2008 [15]

Sao Paulo, Brazil, Santiago, Chile and Mexico City, Mexico, 1998-2002

Case-crossover; % change

Same day apparent temperature compared with days at 75th percentile, O3, PM10

2.69 (-2.06, 7.88) for Santiago, 6.51% (3.57, 9.52) for Sao Paulo and 3.22% (0.93, 5.57) for Mexico City

Lag: 0

McMichael 2008 [45]

Delhi, Monterrey, Mexico City, Chiang Mai, Bangkok, Salvador, Sao Paulo, Santiago, Cape Town, Ljubljana, Bucharest, Sofia, 2 to 5-year series (1991-1999)

Time-series; % change

Daily maximum threshold (16°C-31°C) temperature, relative humidity, precipitation data, PM10, BS, or TSP

1°C increase above threshold increased death rates with increasing heat in all cities: (ranging from 0.77-18.8) except Chiang Mai 2.39 (-0.49-5.35) and Cape Town 0.47 (-0.31-1.24)

Lag: 2-day average

Vaneckova 2008a [46]

Sydney, Australia, October to March 1993-2001

Time-series; ratio of highest 10% mortality days within air mass and % frequency of air mass occurrence

Temporal Synoptic Index (TSI)

1.64 and 2.64 (both significant)for warmest TSIs, no CI provided

Zanobetti and Schwartz 2008 [7]

9 U.S. counties, May to September 1999-2002

Time-series and case-crossover;

% change

Daily apparent temperature (minimum, mean, maximum); daily mean O3, PM2.5, PM10

Per 10°F increase mean temperature, 1.8 (1.09-2.5) case-crossover and 2.7 (2.0-3.5) time-series; similar results for minimum and maximum temperatures

Lag: 0

Barnett 2007 [47]

107 U.S cities using data from the National Morbidity and Mortality Study, 1987-2000

Case-crossover;

% change

Daily temperature

Per 10°F, summer 1987 average increase in cardiovascular deaths was 4.7 (3.0-6.5). By summer 2000, the risk with higher temperature had disappeared (-0.4, -3.2-2.5)

Lag: 04

Medina-Ramon 2007 [21]

50 US cities in cold (November to March) and warm (May to September) seasons

Case-crossover;

% change

Binary variable as extreme heat (range 22-32°C)

and continuous; O3

5.74 (3.38-8.15) for extreme heat

Lag: 2-day average

Kolb 2007 [32]

Montreal, Canada 1984-1993

Case-crossover;

odds ratio

Mean daily and maximum temperature, barometric pressure, relative humidity, adjusted for O3 and both NO2 and O3

1.20 (1.14-1.38) for 25-30°C maximum temperature; strong nonlinear association with a threshold at 25°C

Lag: average 02; no association after 3 days

Carson 2006 [48]

London, England,

4 time periods, winter: December-March; non-winter: April-November

Time-series; ratio of winter to non-winter deaths

Daily mean temperature

1.24 (1.16-1.34) from 1900-10,; 1.54 (1.42, 1.68) from 1927-37, 1.48 (1.35,-1.64) from 1954-64, 1.22 (1.13-1.31) from 1986-96; heat deaths diminished overall in the century

Kim 2006 [40]

6 cities in South Korea, summer 1994-2006

Time-series;

% change

Daily mean temperature thresholds

(27-29.7°C)

1°C above threshold 16.3 (14.2, 18.4), 9.10 (5.12, 13.2), 7.01 (4.42, 9.66), 6.73 (2.47, 11.2) for Seoul, Daegu, Incheon and Gwangiu, respectively

Michelozzi 2006 [49]

4 Italian cities, June to September 2003 & 2004 and reference period (Roma, Torino, Milano: 1995-2002 and Bologna:

1996-2002)

Time-series;

% change

Daily maximum apparent temperature thresholds (28-32°C)

1°C above threshold 3.2 (1.9-4.6), 5.0 (3.8-6.1), 5.4 (4.3-6.5), 3.8 (2.5-5.0) for Bologna, Milano, Roma, and Torino, respectively

Stafoggia 2006 [16]

Bologna, Milan, Rome, Turin, 1997-2003

Case-crossover; odds ratio

30°C mean apparent temperature relative to 20°C; odds ratio

1.34 (1.27, 1.42)

Lag: 01

Basu 2005 [5]

20 US metropolitan areas, seasonal analysis 1992

Time series (relative risk) and case-crossover (odds ratio)

Mean daily temperature per 10F adjusted for dew point temperature; daily O3

Per 10°F, 1.15 (1.07-1.24), 1.10 (0.96-1.27), 1.08 (0.92-1.26), 1.08 (1.02-1.15), and 1.01 (0.92-1.11) in the Southwest, Southeast, Northwest, Northeast, and Midwest, respectively, in the summer from the time-stratified case-crossover

Lag: 0,1

El-Zein 2004 [34]

Greater Beirut, Lebanon, 1997-1999

Time-series;

% change

Mean daily temperature, mean daily humidity, minimum mortality temperature (TMM) = 27.5°C

1°C above TMM 12.3 (5.7, 19.4%) increase in annual mortality

Lag: 0

Goodman 2004 [26]

Dublin, Ireland, April 1980 to December 1996

Time-series;

% change

Daily minimum temperature, daily mean relative humidity

1°C increase 0.4 (0.3-0.6) increase

Lag: 0

Pattenden 2003 [50]

Sofia, Bulgaria (1996-1999) and London, England (1993-1996)

Time-series;

% change

Daily mean temperature, relative humidity and PM (black smoke for London and total suspended particulates for Sofia)

1°C increase above 90th % 1.9 (1.4 to 2.4) in London, and 3.5 (2.2 to 4.8) in Sofia

Lag: 2 day average

Curriero 2002 [39]

11 Eastern US cities, 1973-1994

Time-series;

% change

Daily mean temperature, dew point temperature; minimum mortality temperature (MMT) range: 65.2-90.3

Per 10°F above MMT range 1.4-6.7

Lag: 0

Braga 2001 [11]

12 US cities. 1986-1993

Time-series;

% increase

Mean daily temperature, relative humidity

4% increase (no CI given);

Lag: 0 or 1

Harvesting effect for hot temperatures

  1. * Exceptions: El-Zein 2004 and Carson 2006 reported annual and weekly deaths, respectively.