Case studies in Bayesian microbial risk assessments

Table 1 Risk estimates for Case Study 1

Toddler group & scenario	Estimated incidence (per year)	95% credible intervals
Current UK toddlers	8.6	0	11.5
Ban on-farm	6.4	0	11
Consumers of on-farm milk products only
Current UK toddlers	1.7	0	7.3
Testing (50% reduction)	0.8	0	4.7
Training (40% reduction)	1	0	5.3
Training (60% reduction)	0.6	0	1.9

Estimated yearly illnesses for the UK toddler population and for the sub-population of on-farm consuming toddlers. Credible intervals quantify uncertainty in the total yearly incidences. The % reduction levels refer to the amounts assumed for the reduction in pasteurisation failure levels for a given policy scenario. For example, a 50% reduction is achieved if all batches are tested and the test has a 50% success rate in identifying contaminated batches.

ISSN: 1476-069X