Table 2 Projected change in premature temperature-attributable deaths by cluster and season for 2030, 2050 and 2100, relative to the 1990 baseline based on climate data from the GFDL-CM3 model
Change in premature deaths in future reporting years relative to the 1990 baseline reporting period | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cluster | Population (2010) | Cold (October–March) | Heat (April–September) | Combined | ||||||
2030 | 2050 | 2100 | 2030 | 2050 | 2100 | 2030 | 2050 | 2100 | ||
1 | 43,376,142 | −2313 | −2749 | −5379 | 3369 | 4255 | 7645 | 1055 | 1506 | 2266 |
2 | 31,613,703 | −874 | −1061 | −2330 | 2541 | 3354 | 5922 | 1667 | 2293 | 3592 |
3 | 14,372,496 | −508 | −604 | −1320 | 1062 | 1345 | 2397 | 554 | 741 | 1078 |
4 | 21,143,442 | −726 | −870 | −1782 | 1090 | 1369 | 2514 | 364 | 499 | 732 |
5 | 36,479,539 | −766 | −1170 | −2048 | 1760 | 2512 | 4483 | 994 | 1342 | 2435 |
6 | 11,604,148 | −412 | −502 | −1145 | 528 | 675 | 1401 | 116 | 172 | 256 |
7 | 15,148,594 | −858 | −1159 | −2152 | 590 | 778 | 1377 | −268 | −381 | −775 |
8 | 10,736,551 | −440 | −688 | −1269 | 471 | 629 | 1038 | 31 | −59 | −230 |
9 | 4,774,894 | −84 | −131 | −256 | 235 | 314 | 533 | 151 | 183 | 277 |
All | 189,249,510 | −6981 | −8933 | −17,680 | 11,646 | 15,229 | 27,312 | 4664 | 6296 | 9632 |
Change in premature deaths per million study city residents in future reporting years relative to the 1990 baseline reporting period (2010 populations in all reporting periods) | ||||||||||
Cluster | Population (2010) | Cold (October–March) | Heat (April–September) | Combined | ||||||
2030 | 2050 | 2100 | 2030 | 2050 | 2100 | 2030 | 2050 | 2100 | ||
1 | 43,376,142 | −53.3 | −63.4 | −124.0 | 77.7 | 98.1 | 176.2 | 24.3 | 34.7 | 52.2 |
2 | 31,613,703 | −27.7 | −33.5 | −73.7 | 80.4 | 106.1 | 187.3 | 52.7 | 72.5 | 113.6 |
3 | 14,372,496 | −35.3 | −42.0 | −91.8 | 73.9 | 93.6 | 166.8 | 38.6 | 51.5 | 75.0 |
4 | 21,143,442 | −34.3 | −41.1 | −84.3 | 51.6 | 64.7 | 118.9 | 17.2 | 23.6 | 34.6 |
5 | 36,479,539 | −21.0 | −32.1 | −56.1 | 48.3 | 68.9 | 122.9 | 27.3 | 36.8 | 66.8 |
6 | 11,604,148 | −35.5 | −43.3 | −98.7 | 45.5 | 58.1 | 120.8 | 10.0 | 14.8 | 22.1 |
7 | 15,148,594 | −56.6 | −76.5 | −142.1 | 38.9 | 51.4 | 90.9 | −17.7 | −25.2 | −51.1 |
8 | 10,736,551 | −41.0 | −64.1 | −118.1 | 43.8 | 58.6 | 96.7 | 2.9 | −5.5 | −21.5 |
9 | 4,774,894 | −17.7 | −27.4 | −53.7 | 49.2 | 65.7 | 111.6 | 31.5 | 38.3 | 57.9 |
All | 189,249,510 | −36.9 | −47.2 | −93.4 | 61.5 | 80.5 | 144.3 | 24.6 | 33.3 | 50.9 |