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Table 2 Projected change in premature temperature-attributable deaths by cluster and season for 2030, 2050 and 2100, relative to the 1990 baseline based on climate data from the GFDL-CM3 model

From: Projections of temperature-attributable premature deaths in 209 U.S. cities using a cluster-based Poisson approach

Change in premature deaths in future reporting years relative to the 1990 baseline reporting period
Cluster Population (2010) Cold (October–March) Heat (April–September) Combined
2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100
1 43,376,142 −2313 −2749 −5379 3369 4255 7645 1055 1506 2266
2 31,613,703 −874 −1061 −2330 2541 3354 5922 1667 2293 3592
3 14,372,496 −508 −604 −1320 1062 1345 2397 554 741 1078
4 21,143,442 −726 −870 −1782 1090 1369 2514 364 499 732
5 36,479,539 −766 −1170 −2048 1760 2512 4483 994 1342 2435
6 11,604,148 −412 −502 −1145 528 675 1401 116 172 256
7 15,148,594 −858 −1159 −2152 590 778 1377 −268 −381 −775
8 10,736,551 −440 −688 −1269 471 629 1038 31 −59 −230
9 4,774,894 −84 −131 −256 235 314 533 151 183 277
All 189,249,510 −6981 −8933 −17,680 11,646 15,229 27,312 4664 6296 9632
Change in premature deaths per million study city residents in future reporting years relative to the 1990 baseline reporting period (2010 populations in all reporting periods)
Cluster Population (2010) Cold (October–March) Heat (April–September) Combined
2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100
1 43,376,142 −53.3 −63.4 −124.0 77.7 98.1 176.2 24.3 34.7 52.2
2 31,613,703 −27.7 −33.5 −73.7 80.4 106.1 187.3 52.7 72.5 113.6
3 14,372,496 −35.3 −42.0 −91.8 73.9 93.6 166.8 38.6 51.5 75.0
4 21,143,442 −34.3 −41.1 −84.3 51.6 64.7 118.9 17.2 23.6 34.6
5 36,479,539 −21.0 −32.1 −56.1 48.3 68.9 122.9 27.3 36.8 66.8
6 11,604,148 −35.5 −43.3 −98.7 45.5 58.1 120.8 10.0 14.8 22.1
7 15,148,594 −56.6 −76.5 −142.1 38.9 51.4 90.9 −17.7 −25.2 −51.1
8 10,736,551 −41.0 −64.1 −118.1 43.8 58.6 96.7 2.9 −5.5 −21.5
9 4,774,894 −17.7 −27.4 −53.7 49.2 65.7 111.6 31.5 38.3 57.9
All 189,249,510 −36.9 −47.2 −93.4 61.5 80.5 144.3 24.6 33.3 50.9