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Table 3 Projected change in premature temperature-attributable deaths by cluster and season for 2030, 2050 and 2100, relative to the 1990 baseline based on climate data from the MIROC5 model

From: Projections of temperature-attributable premature deaths in 209 U.S. cities using a cluster-based Poisson approach

Change in premature deaths in future reporting years relative to the 1990 baseline reporting period
   Cold (October–March) Heat (April–September) Combined
Cluster Population (2010) 2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100
1 43,376,142 −1479 −2168 −5279 1677 2170 5120 197 2 −160
2 31,613,703 −916 −1191 −2581 1535 1995 4240 620 803 1659
3 14,372,496 −478 −626 −1357 709 838 1720 231 212 363
4 21,143,442 −490 −746 −1645 644 903 1850 153 157 204
5 36,479,539 −738 −997 −1794 1313 1947 3422 576 950 1628
6 11,604,148 −281 −446 −973 341 505 1069 60 59 97
7 15,148,594 −298 −625 −1530 300 458 964 2 −167 −566
8 10,736,551 −428 −539 −1073 301 458 779 −127 −82 −295
9 4,774,894 −99 −130 −236 129 190 345 31 60 109
All 189,249,510 −5207 −7469 −16,468 6950 9462 19,509 1743 1994 3042
Change in premature deaths per million study city residents in future reporting years relative to the 1990 baseline reporting period (2010 populations in all reporting periods)
   Cold (October–March) Heat (April–September) Combined
Cluster Population (2010) 2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100 2030 2050 2100
1 43,376,142 −34.1 −50.0 −121.7 38.7 50.0 118.0 4.6 0.0 −3.7
2 31,613,703 −29.0 −37.7 −81.6 48.6 63.1 134.1 19.6 25.4 52.5
3 14,372,496 −33.3 −43.6 −94.4 49.4 58.3 119.7 16.1 14.7 25.3
4 21,143,442 −23.2 −35.3 −77.8 30.4 42.7 87.5 7.3 7.4 9.7
5 36,479,539 −20.2 −27.3 −49.2 36.0 53.4 93.8 15.8 26.0 44.6
6 11,604,148 −24.2 −38.4 −83.8 29.4 43.5 92.1 5.2 5.1 8.3
7 15,148,594 −19.7 −41.3 −101.0 19.8 30.2 63.6 0.1 −11.0 −37.4
8 10,736,551 −39.9 −50.2 −100.0 28.1 42.6 72.6 −11.8 −7.6 −27.4
9 4,774,894 −20.7 −27.3 −49.4 27.1 39.8 72.3 6.5 12.5 22.9
All 189,249,510 −27.5 −39.5 −87.0 36.7 50.0 103.1 9.2 10.5 16.1