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Table 3 Estimated mortality for the heatwave of 2003 and a range of future climate projections under a medium emissions scenario, based on 3 different modelled temperature metrics

From: Attribution of mortality to the urban heat island during heatwaves in the West Midlands, UK

  ‘Current’ climate Future climate projections (without population changes)
Temperature metric 2003 heatwave 2020s 2050s 2080s
‘Urban’ population weighted 90 138(125) 200(159) 278(192)
‘Urban’ geographical mean 73 114(104) 173(138) 248(172)
‘Rural’ 43 79(72) 125(101) 195(135)