Estimating deaths attributable to airborne particles: sensitivity of the results to different exposure assessment approaches

Table 2 Shrunken city-specific effects^a and overall meta-analytic effect of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 on natural mortality and corresponding 50 and 90% credibility intervals, Emilia-Romagna region (2006–2010)

City^b	PM₁₀			PM_2.5 ^d
City^b	% variation (Posterior mean)	50% Credibility Interval	90% Credibility Interval	% variation (Posterior mean)	50% Credibility Interval	90% Credibility Interval
Piacenza^c	0.71	0.39, 1.08	−0.03, 2.23	-	-	-
Parma	0.53	0.23, 0.84	−0.32, 1.28	0.20	−0.32, 0.75	−1.23, 1.54
Reggio Emilia	0.64	0.32, 0.95	−0.15, 1.54	0.47	−0.09, 0.99	−0.92, 1.98
Modena	0.47	0.14, 0.77	−0.47, 1.15	0.20	−0.33, 0.76	−1.21, 1.56
Bologna	0.56	0.27, 0.85	−0.21, 1.25	0.35	−0.16, 0.86	−0.96, 1.66
Ravenna	0.43	0.05, 0.76	−0.22, 1.70	-	-	-
Forlì	0.62	0.31, 0.94	−0.22, 1.70	0.24	−0.33, 0.81	−1.26, 1.65
Rimini	0.64	0.34, 0.84	−0.12, 1.70	0.41	−0.17, 0.93	−0.99, 1.87
Overall - “Background” exposure	0.58	0.31, 0.84	−0.09, 1.10	0.31	−0.18, 0.79	−0.96, 1.57
I² (%)	2.77	0.48, 14.61	0.08, 53.78	1.30	0.20, 7.57	0.03, 40.39
Overall - “Average” exposure	0.36	0.12, 0.60	−0.10, 0.82	-	-	-
I² (%)	2.40	0.48, 11.96	0.09, 49.07
Overall - “Traffic” exposure	0.36	0.12, 0.60	−0.23, 0.95	-	-	-
I² (%)	2.24	0.46, 10.79	0.09, 46.60	-	-	-

^a: Effects are expressed as percentage variations in natural mortality associated with an increase of 10 μg/m³ in PM₁₀ or PM_2.5 concentration at lag 0–1
^b: Ferrara is not reported due to for this city the background levels of exposure were not available for the entire study period
^c: Study period for PM₁₀: 2007–2010
^d: Study period: 2008–2010

ISSN: 1476-069X