Estimating deaths attributable to airborne particles: sensitivity of the results to different exposure assessment approaches

Table 3 Estimated number of deaths attributable (AD) to PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 and corresponding attributable community rate (ACR) per 100 000 inhabitants under different counterfactual scenarios by capital city (using the “background” exposure) and total (using different exposure assessment approaches), Emilia-Romagna region (2006–2010)

City^a	RS1-PM₁₀ V = 20 μg/m³			RS2-PM₁₀ V = 9.1 μg/m³			RS3-PM₁₀ V = annual average obtained if the EU limit for daily averages is respected			RS1-PM_2.5 V = 10 μg/m³
City^a	AD	50% CrI	ACR	AD	50% CrI	ACR	AD	50% CrI	ACR	AD	50% CrI	ACR
Piacenza	14	7, 18	14.0	23	11, 29	22.8	2	1, 2	1.7	5	0, 12	4.9
Parma	13	6, 21	7.5	23	10, 36	12.9	1	0, 2	0.6	4	0, 14	2.5
Reggio Emilia	11	6, 16	7.0	21	10, 29	12.6	1	0, 1	0.4	7	0, 16	4.1
Modena	12	4, 22	6.7	20	7, 36	11.1	1	0, 3	0.8	5	0, 15	2.6
Bologna	12	6,19	3.3	35	17, 54	9.5	0	0, 1	0.1	9	0, 22	2.5
Ferrara	7	4, 9	4.9	16	9, 24	12.3	0	0, 0	0.0	6	0, 13	4.2
Ravenna	5	1, 11	3.0	9	1, 22	5.9	0	0, 0	0.0	3	0, 7	1.9
Forlì	6	3, 8	4.9	12	6, 18	10.6	0	0, 0	0.2	2	0, 6	1.8
Rimini	11	6, 16	8.2	20	10, 28	14.1	1	0, 1	0.7	5	0, 13	3.7
9 cities - “Background” exposure^b	91	41, 140	5.9	179	81, 275	11.7	7	3, 10	0.4	46	0, 119	3.0
9 cities - “Average” exposure^b	86	19, 150	5.6	141	31, 247	9.2	10	2, 18	0.7	-	-	-
9 cities - “Traffic” exposure^b	89	21, 155	5.8	143	33, 251	9.4	12	3, 21	0.8	-	-	-

Abbreviations: V counterfactual value, AD attributable deaths, CrI credibility interval, ACR attributable community rate;
RS1-PM₁₀ = reduction scenario where V is equal to 20 μg/m³ annual average (WHO Air Quality Guideline threshold);
RS2-PM₁₀ = reduction scenario where V is equal to annual average concentrations observed in non-urban areas;
RS3-PM₁₀ = reduction scenario where V is equal to annual average obtained if only 35 days, per year, concentrations exceeding 50 μg/m³;
RS1-PM_2.5 = reduction scenario where V is equal to 10 μg/m³ annual average (WHO Air Quality Guideline threshold)
^a: For each city, “background” exposure and “background “effect estimate were used, with the exception of Ferrara for which the “background” overall meta-analytic estimate was used
^b: The low/upper limit of the credibility interval was calculated as the sum of the low/upper limits of the city-specific credibility intervals

ISSN: 1476-069X