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Table 4 Summary of statistics for model prediction relative to original model for Porto Metropolitan Area (PMA) and Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA), Portugal. Values in bold represent lower errors using simulated rather than observed temperature

From: Bootstrap approach to validate the performance of models for predicting mortality risk temperature in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas

WINTER
Model based on Validated with PMA/LMA 2001–2005
Using Tmean
Validated with PMA/LMA 2001–2005
Using Tmin
  MAD RSME MAD RSME
PMA 1986–2000 (Observed) 0.1565 0.0521 0.1854 0.0407
LMA 1986–2000 (Observed) 0.4367 0.4916 0.1183 0.0579
PMA 1986–2000 (Simulated) 0.2205 0.0856 0.1095 0.0447
LMA 1986–2000 (Simulated) 0.3041 0.3296 0.3040 0.3296
SUMMER
Model based on Validated with PMA/LMA 2001–2005
Tmean
Validated with PMA/LMA 2001–2005
Using Tmax
  MAD RSME MAD RSME
PMA 1986–2000 (Observed) 0.1215 0.0299 0.0033 0.00002
LMA 1986–2000 (Observed) 0.0612 0.0068 0.0922 0.0299
PMA 1986–2000 (Simulated) 0.0079 0.0002 0.0068 0.0002
LMA 1986–2000 (Simulated) 0.0202 0.0010 0.0005 0.0208