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Table 3 Estimated mortality percentage change per 1°C decrease in maximum temperature in the Republic of Ireland during winter‡ for ages ≥18 years, 1984–2007*

From: The association of cold weather and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the island of Ireland between 1984 and 2007

 

Lag of Week 1

Lag of Week 2

Lag of Week 3

Lag of Week 4

Lag of Week 5

Cumulative

% Change (95% CI)

% Change (95% CI)

% Change (95% CI)

% Change (95% CI)

% Change (95% CI)

% Change (95% CI)

All-cause Mortality

1.8 (1.5, 2.1)

1.4 (1.1, 1.7)

1.4 (1.1, 1.7)

1.0 (0.7, 1.3)

0.8 (0.5, 1.0)

6.4 (4.8, 7.9)§

CVD

1.8 (1.3, 2.3)

1.3 (0.8, 1.8)

1.3 (0.8; 1.8)

1.2 (0.6, 1.7)

0.4 (−0.1, 0.9)

5.6 (3.5, 7.7)∂

 IHD

2.1 (1.5, 2.7)

0.8 (0.2, 1.4)

1.4 (0.8, 2.0)

1.0 (0.4, 1.6)

0.5 (−0.1, 1.1)

5.3 (2.9, 7.8)∂

 MI

1.9 (1.2, 2.7)

0.8 (0.1, 1.6)

1.4 (0.7, 2.1)

0.9 (0.2, 1.6)

0.7 (−0.03, 1.3)

5.1 (2.2, 8.0)∂

Respiratory Disease

2.5 (1.7, 3.2)

3.2 (2.5, 3.9)

2.6 (1.9, 3.4)

2.7 (1.9, 3.4)

1.5 (0.8, 2.2)

12.5 (8.9, 16.2)§

 COPD

2.3 (1.2, 3.5)

2.8 (1.6, 3.9)

2.3 (1.2, 3.5)

2.9 (1.7, 4.0)

1.4 (0.3, 2.5)

11.7 (6.0, 17.4)§

 Pneumonia

2.9 (1.8, 4.0)

3.6 (2.6, 4.7)

3.2 (2.2, 4.3)

2.5 (1.5, 3.6)

1.5 (0.5, 2.5)

13.8 (8.4, 19.1)§

Stroke

2.5 (1.5, 3.5)

1.1 (0.1, 2.1)

1.4 (0.4, 2.4)

0.8 (−0.2, 1.7)

0.8 (−0.1, 1.8)

5.0 (2.1, 8.0)†

  1. Abbreviations: CI = confidence intervals, COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, CVD = cardiovascular disease, IHD = ischemic heart disease, MI = myocardial infarction. *Models included mortality data for ages ≥18 years, and were adjusted for Lag0 of maximum temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure averaged over 3 days lag, and day of week. % Change = estimated mortality percentage change per 1°C decrease in weekly mean of maximum temperature. Week 1 corresponds to the mean of daily maximum temperature for lag1-7, week 2 for lag8-14, week 3 for lag15-21, week 4 for lag22-28, and week 5 for lag29-35. ‡Winter Months = December to February. §Cumulative change calculated for lag of week 1 to 5. ∂Cumulative change calculated for lag of week 1 to 4. †Cumulative change calculated for lag of week 1 to 3.