The association of cold weather and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the island of Ireland between 1984 and 2007

Table 4 Estimated mortality percentage change per 1°C decrease in maximum temperature in Northern Ireland during winter^‡ for ages ≥18 years, 1984–2007*

	Lag of Week 1	Lag of Week 2	Lag of Week 3	Lag of Week 4	Cumulative
	% Change (95% CI)	% Change (95% CI)	% Change (95% CI)	% Change (95% CI)	% Change (95% CI)
All-cause Mortality	1.7 (1.3, 2.2)	1.2 (0.8, 1.7)	1.6 (1.1, 2.0)	0.4 (−0.01, 0.9)	4.5 (3.2, 5.9)^†
CVD	1.9 (1.1, 2.7)	0.5 (−0.3, 1.3)	1.5 (0.7, 2.3)	0.1 (−0.7, 0.9)	3.9 (1.5, 6.3)^†
IHD	2.3 (1.3, 3.2)	0.1 (−0.8, 1.0)	1.5 (0.5, 2.4)	−0.3 (−1.2, 0.6)	3.8 (1.0, 6.6)^†
MI	2.2 (1.2, 3.2)	−0.02 (−1.0, 1.0)	1.5 (0.5, 2.5)	−0.2 (−1.2, 0.8)	3.7 (0.7, 6.7)^†
Respiratory Disease	2.8 (1.8, 3.9)	2.7 (1.7, 3.7)	4.3 (3.2, 5.3)	1.4 (0.4, 2.4)	11.2 (7.1, 15.3)^∂
COPD	3.7 (1.5, 5.8)	3.1 (1.0, 5.2)	3.9 (1.8, 6.0)	0.8 (−1.3, 2.9)	10.6 (4.2, 17.0)^†
Pneumonia	2.1 (0.8, 3.4)	2.5 (1.2, 3.7)	4.1 (2.8, 5.4)	1.5 (0.2, 2.8)	10.2 (5.0, 15.4)^∂
Stroke	2.0 (0.7, 3.3)	0.9 (−0.4, 2.2)	1.9 (0.6, 3.2)	0.9 (−0.4, 2.2)	4.8 (0.9, 8.8)^†

Abbreviations: CI = confidence intervals, COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, CVD = cardiovascular disease, IHD = ischemic heart disease, MI = myocardial infarction. *Models included mortality data for ages ≥18 years, and were adjusted for Lag0 of maximum temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure averaged over 3 days lag, and day of week. % Change = estimated mortality percentage change per 1°C decrease in weekly mean of maximum temperature. Week 1 corresponds to the mean of daily maximum temperature for lag1-7, week 2 for lag8-14, week 3 for lag15-21, and week 4 for lag22-28. ^‡Winter Months = December to February. ^∂Cumulative change calculated for lag of week 1 to 4. ^†Cumulative change calculated for lag of week 1 to 3.

ISSN: 1476-069X