Variable | Type of uncertainty | Distribution | Parameters | Explanation and references |
---|---|---|---|---|
Exposure-response coefficient for cardiopulmonary mortality, adults (RR) | Parameter uncertainty | Mixeda | 1.12 (1.04;1.27) | Relative increase of mortality per 10 μgm-3 increase of PM2.5 exposure. Values were drawn with equal probability from the two distributions reported in the references Dockery et al. 1993 [10] and Pope et al. 2002 (table 3, average between 1979 and 1999-200 results) [25]. |
Exposure-response coefficient for lung cancer mortality, adults (RR) | Parameter uncertainty | Mixed | 1.15 (0.94;1.40) | Â |
Exposure-response coefficient for all other non-accidental mortality, adults (RR) | Parameter uncertainty | Mixed | 1.01 (0.91;1.09) | Â |
Plausibility, cardiopulmonary mortality | Model uncertainty | Bernoullib | P = 0.7 yes, P = 0.3 no | AJc. Plausibility = "Is the observed effect due to true causal connection." |
Plausibility, lung cancer mortality | Model uncertainty | Bernoulli | P = 0.9 yes, P = 0.1 no | Â |
Plausibility, other mortality | Model uncertainty | Bernoulli | P = 0.1 yes, P = 0.9 no | Â |
Exposure-response coefficient for non-accidental mortality, infants (RR) | Parameter uncertainty | Normald | 1.04; 0.013 | Relative increase of infant mortality (less than one year old infants) per 10 μgm-3 increase of PM2.5 exposure. Reference Woodruff et al. 1997 [30]. |
Plausibility, non-accidental mortality, infant | Model uncertainty | Bernoulli | P = 0.6 yes, P = 0.4 no | AJ. Plausibility = "Is the observed effect due to true causal connection." |
Lag vs. zero-lag | Model uncertainty | Bernoulli | P = 0.5 yes, P = 0.5 no | AJ. Lag = the time difference between the exposure and the causal health effect. See The lag sub-model chapter for details. |
Exposure (μgm-3), infants (2002) (ΔE) | Parameter uncertainty | Log-normale | 0.31; 3.27 | The exposure of study population for local traffic related primary fine particles (0–6, 7–59 and 59–110 years for infants, adults and elderly, respectively). The exposure model [19–21] was based on EXPOLIS-Helsinki study [22–24]. See Exposure scenarios sub-model chapter for details. |
Exposure (μgm-3), adults (2002) (ΔE) | Parameter uncertainty | Log-normal | 0.56; 2.81 |  |
Exposure (μgm-3), elderly (2002) (ΔE) | Parameter uncertainty | Log-normal | 0.55; 3.08 |  |
Exposure (μgm-3), infants (2025) (ΔE) | Parameter uncertainty | Log-normal | 0.14; 3.56 |  |
Exposure (μgm-3), adults (2025) (ΔE) | Parameter uncertainty | Log-normal | 0.21; 2.94 |  |
Exposure (μgm-3), elderly (2025) (ΔE) | Parameter uncertainty | Log-normal | 0.2; 3.24 |  |
Valuation of a life-year-lost | Parameter uncertainty | Uniformf | 52000; 120000 | Min and max from CAFE study [39]. See text for details. |
Discount | Model uncertainty | Uniform | 0.02; 0.06 | Min and max from CAFE study [39]. See text for details. |
Blank | - | Uniform | 0.0; 1.0 | Blank = internal standard of the model. Not related to the model results. |