Meteorological factors and childhood diarrhea in Peru, 2005–2015: a time series analysis of historic associations, with implications for climate change

Table 2 Association between meteorological factors and incidence rate of childhood clinic visits for diarrhea, Peru, 2005–2015

	IRR (95% CI)
Temperature across 3 weeks prior to diarrhea cases^a	1.038 (1.032, 1.044)
1-week temperature lag^b	1.014 (1.011, 1.017)
2-week temperature lag^b	1.016 (1.013, 1.019)
3-week temperature lag^b	1.008 (1.005, 1.010)
Moderate/strong El Niño period	1.026 (1.009, 1.044)
Dry season	1.014 (1.002, 1.027)
Rotavirus vaccine era (2010–2015)^c	0.913 (0.886, 0.941)
Year (secular trend)^d	0.968 (0.961, 0.974)

IRR incidence rate ratio, CI confidence interval
Multivariable model: IRRs are controlled for other variables in the model/table, and for province. This model also included terms for the interaction between the rotavirus vaccine era and temperature variables; the overall interaction was not significant (p = 0.37), thus the temperature estimates stratified by vaccine era are not presented.
^a Combined effect of temperature across 3 weeks prior to weekly diarrhea report.
^b The 1-week temperature lag is the effect of temperature in the week before the diarrhea cases, the 2-week lag refers to the week before that, etc.
^c Compared to the pre-rotavirus vaccine era (2005–2009).
^d Continuous term for year.

ISSN: 1476-069X