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Table 3 Associations between meteorological factors and incidence rate of childhood clinic visits for diarrhea, Peru, 2005–2015, stratified by piped water access

From: Meteorological factors and childhood diarrhea in Peru, 2005–2015: a time series analysis of historic associations, with implications for climate change

  Piped water accessa
  Low provinces (N = 64) IRR (95% CI) High provinces (N = 56) IRR (95% CI) Transitional provinces (N = 74) IRR (95% CI)
Temperature across 3 weeks prior to diarrhea casesb 1.017 (1.007, 1.027) 1.043 (1.034, 1.051) 1.042 (1.033, 1.051)
 1-week temperature lagc 1.004 (1.000, 1.009) 1.021 (1.016, 1.026) 1.013 (1.008, 1.019)
 2-week temperature lagc 1.008 (1.003, 1.014) 1.016 (1.011, 1.021) 1.019 (1.014, 1.024)
 3-week temperature lagc 1.004 (0.999, 1.009) 1.005 (1.000, 1.010) 1.009 (1.004, 1.013)
Moderate/strong El Niño period 1.042 (1.008, 1.077) 1.023 (1.000, 1.046) 1.026 (0.996, 1.057)
Dry season 1.036 (1.014, 1.059) 1.007 (0.989, 1.026) 1.012 (0.992, 1.032)
Rotavirus vaccine era (2010–2015)d 0.955 (0.895, 1.019) 0.892 (0.851, 0.934) 0.901 (0.862, 0.942)
Year (secular trend)e 0.974 (0.962, 0.985) 0.957 (0.946, 0.968) 0.970 (0.960, 0.981)
  1. IRR incidence rate ratio, CI confidence interval
  2. Multivariable model: IRRs are controlled for other variables in the model/table, and for province.
  3. a “Low piped water access” provinces were defined as those in which < 60% of households had access to a piped water connection in all study years (2005–2015), or all but 1 year. “High piped water access” provinces were those in which ≥60% of households had access to a piped water connection in all study years, or all but 1 year. “Transitional piped water access” provinces were those that did not fall into either category, i.e., those that transitioned from lower piped water access (< 60% of households with a piped water connection) to higher piped water access (≥60% of households with a piped water connection) between 2005 and 2015.
  4. b Combined effect of temperature across 3 weeks prior to weekly diarrhea report.
  5. c The 1-week temperature lag is the effect of temperature in the week before the diarrhea cases, the 2-week lag refers to the week before that, etc.
  6. d Compared to the pre-rotavirus vaccine era (2005–2009).
  7. e Continuous term for year.